Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive—Rational Debate. This model, used largely in studies of organizational behavior, provides a sequential system for making decisions to be used by managers and groups in organizations and businesses. National choices and international processes. Whether considering strategies to end war in Syria, preventing war in North Korea, stopping degradation in Kazakhstan, or ameliorating tension between major rivals in the Middle East, No. In real-world decision-making situations, there is rarely a case of pure or extreme polythink or proupthink Geroge,. Decisions made by groups when dealing with complex problems and issues occur everyday in the life of an organization. A central and intuitively powerful claim of bureaucratic politics explanations, this has been criticized for its narrow view of preference formation.
A state must determine which goal is affected by the international and domestic political environment at any given time. Another step back would be to ask how the decision-making group comes to be in the first place, how structures and processes of groups are created and changed over time within a society. Psychological Models in International Politics. International Studies Quarterly 50, 561—83. Dissatisfaction with explanations of decision making provided by rational choice accounts served as the impetus for the exploration of other perspectives. An Experimental Study of High-Ranking Military Officers. Prospect theory in international relations: The Iranian hostage rescue.
Perhaps the most progressive advances in the approach have concerned noncooperative game theory, which has offered a good deal of leverage on such concepts as signaling, bargaining, and commitment see, e. . In this model, the utility scores associated with each outcome are multiplied by the probability of that outcome manifesting. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. Eisenhower And now we have Brussels to add to a list that can never grow shorter. Essentially, a decision is a choice that an individual or a group of people makes.
Research on organizational roles of decision-makers suggests that alternatives advocated by a given group member are likely to be dictated by their own organizational routines or their own organizational interests Allison. Other departments may also have a role in implementing foreign policy, such as departments for: , , and. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, 131—55. Foreign Policy Analysis 1, 1—30. One thing all of us affiliated with the Project continue to hope for, even if it is a small hope indeed, is that even when things look bleak or our optimism in the human agents conducting global affairs dims considerably, the effort to continue to expose our readers to knowledge, to new perspectives and outlooks, will shine a brighter light and construct newer pathways that seemed impossible before. First, although billed as an alternative to the rational choice model, bureaucratic politics is not inconsistent with group decision making assuming rationality Maoz ; Christensen and Redd.
The term polythink implies many ways of perceiving the same decision problem, goals, or solutions Mintz et al. As is well known following the work of Simon 1957 , a completely rational decision making process demands too much of those making the decision2. Rather than maximize with respect to a goal, decision-makers are thought to employ a satisficing selection rule — the first alternative that is deemed satisfactory is adopted. Whether actors are elected or appointed, high-, mid-, or low-level, and new to their stations or old hands can all affect their interests and bargaining positions. This is distinctly what policy models endeavor to do. The Political Psychologist 2, 12—16.
For example, DeRouen utilized prospect theory to account for uses of military force when presidents are in political trouble. In particular, the gulf between the rational choice approaches and cognitive psychological approaches appears to have stymied progress see Brulé. Prospect theory and the cognitive-rational debate. Models of Man: Social and Rational. Simon suggests that a decision made today may yield optimal benefits for the current problem, but the current decision may actually work against an optimal outcome in subsequent decision problems see also Lindblom. New York: The Free Press.
Human performance in decision making terms has been the subject of active research from several perspectives. Early Cold War scholars tended to assume a rational choice framework. No, this is not an explanation justifying the decision to fight with them. Time pressure is frequently associated with stress Holsti and George. This is most certainly the case in the world of conflict and cooperation: for every new invention or arrival of a new epoch the 21st century is supposed to bring us, we never seem far removed from thinking that has always gotten us into trouble as a species.
But such concepts may have interactive effects on foreign policy decision making. Rosenau developed a decision-making framework that, like the others, included a list of variables previously identified by challengers to the rational model. For example, if alternative X is expected to yield A and A is preferred to B, a decision-maker should prefer alternative X to an alternative that is expected to yield B. As Maoz observes, perceived threats and opportunities speak to the nature of the decision problem, addressing the question of why a decision-maker needs to make a decision. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, pp.
As it stands now, many concepts, such as leadership or framing, tend to be considered in relative isolation. It can be contrasted with the homogeneous, uniform, monolithic viewpoint of groups characterized by groupthink. Project was used extensively to simulate the exchange of diplomatic communiqués e. Approaches, Levels and Methods of Analysis in International Politics: Crossing Boundaries. Explanatory variables from all levels of analysis, from the most micro to the most macro, are of interest to the analyst to the extent that they affect the decisionmaking process.